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Drysart had this to say about pies:
The poll's sample size versus the state's population size is already statistically factored into the poll's margin of error. The margin of error is a confidence level that there's a 95% probability that if the poll were expanded to include everyone in the state, it'd fall within the margin of error around the value actually reported by the poll.Suppose a polling company calls 1000 randomly selected people in a state that is truly divided 50-50, they may, simply by accident, happen to call 520 Democrats and 480 Republicans and announce that Kerry is ahead 52% to 48%. But another company on the same day may happen to get 510 Republicans and 490 Democrats and announce that Bush is ahead 51% to 49%. The variation caused by having such a small sample is called the margin of error and is usually between 2% and 4% for the sample sizes used in state polling. This means that with a margin of error of, say, 3%, a reported 51% really means that there is a 95% chance that the correct number is between 48% and 54% (and a 5% chance that it is outside this range).
In the first above example, with a 3% MoE, the 95% confidence interval for Kerry is 49% to 55% and for Bush 45% to 51%. Since these overlap, we cannot be 95% certain that Kerry is really ahead, so this is called a statistical tie. Nevertheless, the probability that Kerry is ahead is greater than the probability that Bush is ahead, only we cannot be very sure of the conclusion. When the ranges of the candidates do not overlap (i.e., the difference between them is at least twice the margin of error), then we can be 95% certain the leader is really ahead.
The states in white or merely with colored borders on the map should be regarded as tossups no matter who is currently slightly ahead; the results could easily flip in the next poll without a single voter changing his or her mind. Of course, the margin of error can be reduced by using a bigger sample, but that takes longer and costs more money, so most polls opt for 500 to 1000 respondents.
Figured, though I was wanting to work out some of the margins of error for myself, (as a sidenote, I have to memorise the formulae for doing so for Design of Science, but there you go)...and yes, you need to quadruple the sample size to double the accuracy.
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Aury had this to say about Pirotess:
I don't like the way this is heading.
I do. But it is close. I am not sure if Bush will get more of a blip in the polls just like Kerry did.
Any way you cut it, this will be an interesting 65 days.
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Drysart had this to say about pies:
Also interesting to note is that CNN had a story about the electoral college a couple of days ago. They put the score at Kerry 264, Bush, 274. We agree on 46 states but differ on four states. CNN gives Wisconsin to Kerry; I have it currently for Bush. Personally, I think they are right, but the last poll puts Bush ahead. CNN awards Nevada and Tennessee to Bush; I have them for Kerry at the moment. Both are close. It is premature to call Nevada for Bush. It has gone back and forth several times. It is really a tossup. Tennessee should be an easy win for Bush, but the polls say otherwise. Finally, there is Colorado. In recent years it has gone Republican, but the polls say it is a tie now. The conventional wisdom would paint it red, but the data paints it white right now. It is interesting to note that if CNN is right except for Nevada, it is an exact tie, 269 to 269.
It is also interesting to note that in an exact tie, the decision would be up to the Republican controlled House. =/
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Zair came out of the closet to say:
It is also interesting to note that in an exact tie, the decision would be up to the Republican controlled House. =/
The President would be decided by the Republican controlled House. The Vice President would be decided by the likely Democrat controlled Senate. A Bush/Edwards administration would be interesting, to say the least.
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Drysart got bored and wrote this:
The President would be decided by the Republican controlled House. The Vice President would be decided by the likely Democrat controlled Senate. A Bush/Edwards administration would be interesting, to say the least.
Aren't we electing senators and congressmen this election, as well? Or does that not take effect until after the decision? 
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Drysart said this about your mom:
CNN awards Nevada and Tennessee to Bush; I have them for Kerry at the moment. Both are close. It is premature to call Nevada for Bush. It has gone back and forth several times. It is really a tossup.
All the polls I've seen here locally indicate the same. Either Bush or Kerry, usually by no more than 1-2%, depending on whose poll you're looking at. There have been a LOT of dueling ads concerning Yucca Mountain, and as usual, both sides fail to get it totally right.
All signs so far point to this election being a real nailbiter. For both sides.
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Delphi Aegis came out of the closet to say:
Aren't we electing senators and congressmen this election, as well? Or does that not take effect until after the decision?
The incoming Congress would vote on the President and Vice President. Right now it appears that Republicans will maintain control of the House, and Democrats will control the Senate, though, like everything else, that's subject to change as the election draws closer.
My daddy may lose his job.
No matter what, my vote really seems to lack significance,
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Lashanna's account was hax0red to write:
I really wish I lived somewhere where my vote counted.
If I vote for Bush, that's just one more vote for Bush in my state, yippee.
If I vote for Kerry, Bush still wins by a staggering margin. Hooray.No matter what, my vote really seems to lack significance,
Principle.
You were crushed underfoot, but you voted for what you believed in. Vote Kerry, you freedom-hating swine.
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Lashanna had this to say about Punky Brewster:
No matter what, my vote really seems to lack significance,
Welcome to Jo'juh, honey. Y'want some sweet tea?
It's not something people hear about.
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Drysart got bored and wrote this:
The incoming Congress would vote on the President and Vice President. Right now it appears that Republicans will maintain control of the House, and Democrats will control the Senate, though, like everything else, that's subject to change as the election draws closer.
Okay, another question.
A bush/edwards white house would be interesting. But I was under the impression that the vice president only does things that the president is too busy/bored with/lazy to do.. 
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Lashanna enlisted the help of an infinite number of monkeys to write:
I really wish I lived somewhere where my vote counted.
If I vote for Bush, that's just one more vote for Bush in my state, yippee.
If I vote for Kerry, Bush still wins by a staggering margin. Hooray.No matter what, my vote really seems to lack significance,
Somewhat similar here, except Kerry will own Illinois.
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Delphi Aegis attempted to be funny by writing:
Okay, another question.A bush/edwards white house would be interesting. But I was under the impression that the vice president only does things that the president is too busy/bored with/lazy to do..
The Vice presidents only duty is to inquire about the health of the president every day (I wonder if they actually do that), take over for him if he dies, and cast tie breaking votes in the Senate. So, yeah, unless the president regulates duties to them, they don't do all that much.
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Zair got bored and wrote this:
The Vice presidents only duty is to inquire about the health of the president every day (I wonder if they actually do that), take over for him if he dies, and cast tie breaking votes in the Senate. So, yeah, unless the president regulates duties to them, they don't do all that much.
Even then, can't he (essentially) force the VP to send in a resignation, and simply appoint a new guy of whomever he wants?
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Nobody really understood why Delphi Aegis wrote:
Even then, can't he (essentially) force the VP to send in a resignation, and simply appoint a new guy of whomever he wants?
I have no idea who has the authority to fire the vice president.
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Delphi Aegis had this to say about Robocop:
Okay, another question.A bush/edwards white house would be interesting. But I was under the impression that the vice president only does things that the president is too busy/bored with/lazy to do..
He basically does whatever the President lets/tells him to do.
John Nance Garner, FDR's first Vice President once offered what was, arguably, the best summation ever of the Vice President's job; "The job ain't worth a bucket of warm piss."
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Zair came out of the closet to say:
I have no idea who has the authority to fire the vice president.
Congress can impeach the Vice President. Nobody else can fire the Vice President except the voters.
Oh well. Perhaps we can look forward to Clinton/Obama in 2008?
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JooJooFlop had this to say about Cuba:
Was Kerry really the best the Democratic party could come up with?Oh well. Perhaps we can look forward to Clinton/Obama in 2008?
I'd rather see Obama/Hillary, or better yet, Obama/Someone else.
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Zair had this to say about John Romero:
I'd rather see Obama/Hillary, or better yet, Obama/Someone else.
If Obama just plays smart for the next few years I think he could stomp Hillary in the Dem. primaries.
sigpic courtesy of This Guy, original modified by me
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Ja'Deth Issar Ka'bael had this to say about dark elf butts:
Interestingly enough, NPR was saying on Friday that Ohio could be one of the big states this election. Something about a lot of Electoral votes and how people there, despite being traditionally Republican, are suffering a lot in general in the case of jobs. Cleveland has like the highest unemployment rate in the country.
Yeah, Ohio and Florida have been the number 1 focus for both campaigns for months.
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Naimah had this to say about Optimus Prime:
What issues are these if you don't mind me asking?
This is from an obviously biased source, but here is what he is talking about, I believe. Zair fucked around with this message on 09-20-2004 at 01:13 AM.
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Naimah needs to learn to type:
What issues are these if you don't mind me asking?
Well a big one is that these polls don't hit anyone using a VOIP telephone service provider, the users of which are generally big city dwelling IT professionals, who usually vote democratic. This might only have a .5% or 1% effect on the numbers, if that, but in alot of states the polls are close enough that a change that small could make a difference.
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Naimah came out of the closet to say:
What issues are these if you don't mind me asking?
The link already posted gives a pretty good overview of it. Just look at the numbers and ignore the rhetoric from the site around it. Selection bias is the most effectively way to make a poll irrelevant and incorrect, and at first glance what they're doing would shift their numbers by more than a few percent. I'm comparing their methodology to other national polling outfits to see if what they're doing is out of the norm before I raise any flags about it though.
As far as the VOIP issue goes --- neh, I don't think it's a big issue. The adoption of it isn't nearly popular enough to make any noticable outcome on the numbers, and there's no reason to believe that a majority of Vonage customers are Democrats anyway except for speculation. Same deal with cell phones, which I think might tilt the polls a little bit, but probably not enough to really affect the margin of error.
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We were all impressed when Naimah wrote:
It seems to me like Gallup has been using the same methodology for the last couple decades and that it would be odd to call them on some error in their ways now. However, I am not the expert so I will allow you to do that thing that you do.
I'd have to agree. It does deserve some investigation now though, since it varies greatly from another major poll that came out at the same time.
Gallup had Kerry 11 points behind. The other poll had Kerry 1 point behind
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This insanity brought to you by Zair:
I'd have to agree. It does deserve some investigation now though, since it varies greatly from another major poll that came out at the same time.Gallup had Kerry 11 points behind. The other poll had Kerry 1 point behind
Polls often disagree, they are a practice of statistics and statistics is far from infalible.
