In a well-planned-out set of operations (which is what was sold to the public), we could have been wildly successful. The problem is that the administration and it's key players (Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld) have chronically made bad decisions based on their own opinions rather than anything backed by people on the ground with experience who look to have been right. Cheney and Rumsfeld seem to be carrying on the same sort of military agenda they've always promoted regarding the Middle East, except this time it's the wrong toolset for the job at hand. We COULD have handled this and Afghanistan. All the major players seem to indicate this fact. The problem is that mishandling and grotesque underestimations of the situation have left things heinously out of control. We're losing Iraq through no fault of the forces and operations on the ground, and we're distracted away from Afghanistan because of it.

Now we have this brewing with NK, and frankly unless someone else is supplying the warm bodies to send into a war (unlikely), it won't be handled militarily.

I foresee NK getting a lot out of this situation before it's over.

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Ja'Deth Issar Ka'bael had this to say about (_|_):
Now we have this brewing with NK, and frankly unless someone else is supplying the warm bodies to send into a war (unlikely), it won't be handled militarily.

I foresee NK getting a lot out of this situation before it's over.

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Part of the problem is we can't send anyone into NK. Any military action against NK means major artillery fire into SK, with estimates into the hundreds of thousands dead within a day. As I mentioned before, Seoul will basically be flattened. Nobody wants that amount of civilian blood on their hands.

Furthermore, the collapse/destruction of the NK government will result in NK basically self destructing. The required humanitarian effort will be massive, dwarfing than efforts we saw in Iraw. Part of SK's sunshine campaign is to mitigate the damage from the eventual downfall of NK, though the actual effectiveness of the campaign is questionable. Again, nobody wants to deal with this.

I wouldn't say NK will get nothing out of this, but China is really going to bitchslap their little brother soon if NK continues on it's little tirade. China wants stability so that it can continue to grow and it definitely doesn't want Japan to decide to enter the nuclear arms party. NK trying to be a big boy simply isn't in China's interests and China has the best chance to resolve the issue quietly.

Ignoring the Bush issue here, because it isn't entirely Bush's fault. He certainly didn't help matters, but he's not the one to blame in this case.

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Ja'Deth Issar Ka'bael startled the peaceful upland Gorillas, blurting:
I feel the need to clarify my earlier point. I have little to no regrets in knocking Saddam over. In retrospect, I'd like to think he was contained the way he was, but even assuming no WMD's he was going to be a problem. Keep in mind that while the CIA said that there were signs of a populist rebellion in a few years, they're also the ones who drop the ball a lot. So getting Saddam out was not a bad thing.

In a well-planned-out set of operations (which is what was sold to the public), we could have been wildly successful. The problem is that the administration and it's key players (Bush, Cheney, and Rumsfeld) have chronically made bad decisions based on their own opinions rather than anything backed by people on the ground with experience who look to have been right. Cheney and Rumsfeld seem to be carrying on the same sort of military agenda they've always promoted regarding the Middle East, except this time it's the wrong toolset for the job at hand. We COULD have handled this and Afghanistan. All the major players seem to indicate this fact. The problem is that mishandling and grotesque underestimations of the situation have left things heinously out of control. We're losing Iraq through no fault of the forces and operations on the ground, and we're distracted away from Afghanistan because of it.

Now we have this brewing with NK, and frankly unless someone else is supplying the warm bodies to send into a war (unlikely), it won't be handled militarily.

I foresee NK getting a lot out of this situation before it's over.

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There are always more things going on than the public sees, and there are always more goals than the obvious ones. It's overly simplistic to say there was clear consensus among the experts and that the big cheeses overrode them out of ignorance and pride.

..but they're the ones who made the final decisions. They're held accountable, and there's documented proof that they weren't listening to the folks who had on the ground experience with this sort of thing. Rumsfeld might be a military genius under the covers, but everything we can prove has indicated he's habitually dropped the ball, made oddly inadequate choices, or advised others to do so.

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Channeling the spirit of Sherlock Holmes, Ja'Deth Issar Ka'bael absently fondled Watson and proclaimed:
Oh I concede there's behind the scenes stuff I don't know. I'd be an idiot not to realize that...

..but they're the ones who made the final decisions. They're held accountable, and there's documented proof that they weren't listening to the folks who had on the ground experience with this sort of thing. Rumsfeld might be a military genius under the covers, but everything we can prove has indicated he's habitually dropped the ball, made oddly inadequate choices, or advised others to do so.

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That's what I'm talking about, though. Generals will always ask for a metric assload of stuff they don't really need, and paint a dire picture of what will happen without it. Further, the military only narrowly considers its mission, while the folks in DC have, frankly, other priorities to consider.

I'm not going to come down on one side or the other, but just because the recommendations of the guys on the ground weren't followed to the letter doesn't mean their bosses are stupid, and it certainly doesn't mean the situation would be any better if the recommendations had been followed.

In my reasonably informed opinion, what it would take to stabilize the situation in Iraq in the short term would be so politically unpalatable both at home and abroad that it's not worth it. And I'm not talking about violating any humanitarian principles.

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Pvednes startled the peaceful upland Gorillas, blurting:
That makes sense. It's always better for ask for a hundred things that would be useful, and get twenty of them, than to ask for only five and get five.

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I'm not saying it doesn't make sense. But it does argue against the "give the generals all they want and everything will be fine" point of view.