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Topic: So I was thinking about the lottery
Mr. Gainsborough
posted 09-15-2005 07:48:56 PM
quote:
Bloodsage probably says this to all the girls:
a small number is the same as zero

EVERYTHING I KNOW IS A LIE.

Snugglits
I LIKE TO ABUSE THE ALERT MOD BUTTON AND I ENJOY THE FLAVOR OF SWEET SWEET COCK.
posted 09-15-2005 07:52:26 PM
quote:
Bloodsage Model 2000 was programmed to say:
I thought you were supposed to be good at math? It proves that a small number is the same as zero, otherwise how can it keep crossing half the distance? Won't there always be half of a discrete distance left, unless at some point it just doesn't matter anymore?

It's an ivory tower stupidity versus the real world thing. Sure, there's a measurable chance to win the jackpot. But it's pretty damned stupid to count on it because the odds make it just this side of impossible for any given individual to win. Buying a lottery ticket is almost exactly the same as throwing a dollar in the fireplace, in practical terms.


That's a pretty poor system to apply to kinematics. We know that the math behind statistics is useful. And also, we can observe that arrows do indeed strike things and people do indeed win the lottery.

Also, if you really want to get gritty here, while it does take the arrow an infinite number of "steps" to reach its target under this system, each step is only half as much time as the one before it (ignoring air resistance). As a result, the sum of the time spent in all of these steps, from 1 to infinity, will only be the total amount of time the arrow spends in the air. Integrating the velocity function over this time will give the distance the arrow travels in total. The time in the last step is infintismally small; nothing can measure it.

On the other hand, integrating with probability gives a rational number which can actually be represented. I don't see how that's an analogy at all.

[b].sig removed by Mr. Parcelan[/b]
Sean
posted 09-15-2005 07:53:44 PM
quote:
Mr. Gainsborough had this to say about Robocop:
EVERYTHING I KNOW IS A LIE.

YOU'RE LIVING IN THE MATRIX, MARK. TAKE THE RED PILL!

A Kansas City Shuffle is when everybody looks right, you go left.

It's not something people hear about.

Snugglits
I LIKE TO ABUSE THE ALERT MOD BUTTON AND I ENJOY THE FLAVOR OF SWEET SWEET COCK.
posted 09-15-2005 07:54:44 PM
quote:
We were all impressed when Bloodsage wrote:
What the fuck are you talking about? You quoted me and called it just a semantics argument, as if it made no difference--and which, btw, you are doing with your stupid statistics argument.

Addiction and compulsion are different. You fucked up the difference.


My point is that I only made a single post stating that, and then you tell me to stop arguing about it, like I have been going on all day about addiction versus compulsion. See the bolded part.

[b].sig removed by Mr. Parcelan[/b]
Snugglits
I LIKE TO ABUSE THE ALERT MOD BUTTON AND I ENJOY THE FLAVOR OF SWEET SWEET COCK.
posted 09-15-2005 07:55:53 PM
What I'm really trying to say is that people do actually win the lotto. This couldn't be the case if you had no chance at it.
[b].sig removed by Mr. Parcelan[/b]
Mr. Gainsborough
posted 09-15-2005 07:56:19 PM
quote:
Sean wrote, obviously thinking too hard:
YOU'RE LIVING IN THE MATRIX, MARK. TAKE THE RED PILL!

But I thought putting things into my body is bad!

Sean
posted 09-15-2005 07:57:16 PM
oh shit i forgot
A Kansas City Shuffle is when everybody looks right, you go left.

It's not something people hear about.

Ja'Deth Issar Ka'bael
I posted in a title changing thread.
posted 09-15-2005 08:42:20 PM
[professor frink on] THE VALUE OF PI IS EXACTLY THREE! [/professor frink]
Lyinar's sweetie and don't you forget it!*
"All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die. -Roy Batty
*Also Lyinar's attack panda

sigpic courtesy of This Guy, original modified by me

Bloodsage
Heart Attack
posted 09-15-2005 10:45:55 PM
quote:
Quoth Snugglits:
My point is that I only made a single post stating that, and then you tell me to stop arguing about it, like I have been going on all day about addiction versus compulsion. See the bolded part.

Where did you put your brain today. After I pointed out the difference between addiction and compulsion, you called the difference only semantic. That is where you fucked up. Had you just said, "Okay," and moved on, there'd have been no problem.

To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.

--Satan, quoted by John Milton

Sean
posted 09-15-2005 10:47:32 PM
so how about we get back to that presence of something very very small somehow equalling the presence of nothing, huh huh
A Kansas City Shuffle is when everybody looks right, you go left.

It's not something people hear about.

Bloodsage
Heart Attack
posted 09-15-2005 10:50:06 PM
quote:
Channeling the spirit of Sherlock Holmes, Snugglits absently fondled Watson and proclaimed:
What I'm really trying to say is that people do actually win the lotto. This couldn't be the case if you had no chance at it.

Wow. You should win the Nobel Prize for Stating the Obvious with that one!

No one claimed that nobody ever wins the lottery. In practice, however, the odds of any given person winning any given lottery are so miniscule as to be irrelevant. Therefore, anyone who considers a lottery ticket an investment is an idiot, because millions-to-one odds approach zero closely enough in practice as to render attempts to beat them stupid. Intelligent people don't waste time and effort, much less money, creating contingencies for things with odds like that.

To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.

--Satan, quoted by John Milton

Maradon!
posted 09-15-2005 10:51:04 PM
People who play the lottery and bank on winning are stupid.
Noxhil2
Pancake
posted 09-15-2005 10:54:15 PM
quote:
Maradon! attempted to be funny by writing:
People who play the lottery and bank on winning are stupid.

That's not true in all cases.

Bloodsage
Heart Attack
posted 09-15-2005 10:55:41 PM
quote:
Verily, the chocolate bunny rabits doth run and play while Noxhil2 gently hums:
That's not true in all cases.

The sole exception has already been noted.

To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.

--Satan, quoted by John Milton

Falaanla Marr
I AM HOT CHIX
posted 09-15-2005 10:58:51 PM
quote:
The logic train ran off the tracks when Ja'Deth Issar Ka'bael said:
Contrast that with NC, which in terms of roadwork and education is running so far into the red right now that it's frightening, and where they keep voting down the idea of a lottery.

Actually, the lottery was just approved a couple of weeks ago or so. Managed to get it through in Special Session when a couple of State senator types couldn't make it back to vote.

So we will have a lottery in NC now.

Maradon!
posted 09-15-2005 11:05:17 PM
Lotteries actually take out an insurance policy against someone winning. When someone does win, the insurance company pays out, not the lottery.

The lottery organization pays the huge premium instead, and the difference between the premium and the take goes first to lining the pockets of the lottery organization, then usually to a given charity that the lottery exists for.

In south carolina, for example, lottery proceeds go toward college tuition for state colleges like USC. Tuition is very cheap here as a result! In PA it benefitted old farts somehow that I never really understood.

But anyway, think of this: If any given person could play the lottery and come out on top, how could this system possibly work? How could an insurance company and the lottery organization all stay in the black and STILL have enough left over to do something meaningful with the money?

Logically, nearly everybody MUST be losing, and losing a lot. The whole fucking system just wouldn't work any other way.

Reynar
Oldest Member
Best Lap
posted 09-15-2005 11:12:13 PM
quote:
Check out the big brain on Bloodsage!
There is no such thing as a gambling addict, unless you've recently caught someone freebasing a scratch-off thingy. Some obsessive-compulsive behavior is oriented towards gambling, but that != addiction.

Yes, I know gambling cannot be 'addicting' by the definition of the term. Sorry, I used the wrong word. =x

But I stand by what I said, just replace addiction with obsessive-compulsive.

"Give me control of a nation's money, and I care not who makes its laws."
-Mayer Rothschild
Reynar
Oldest Member
Best Lap
posted 09-15-2005 11:17:40 PM
quote:
Maradon! attempted to be funny by writing:

Logically, nearly everybody MUST be losing, and losing a lot. The whole fucking system just wouldn't work any other way.

No doubt about it. Most State Lotteries post the number of winners on their website. For instance:

http://www.michigan.gov/lottery/0,1607,7-110-28916_29053---,00.html

Anyone with a brain can understand that the chances of winning are horribly against you, but like I said, you can play for $1, and I piss away a lot more than that on random crap during the week.

Another $1 towards getting a 1:200,000,000 chance of winning free cash is nothing.

"Give me control of a nation's money, and I care not who makes its laws."
-Mayer Rothschild
Maradon!
posted 09-15-2005 11:19:49 PM
I think you have a better chance of winning a million dollars by giving $1 to a pan handler and having him come back months later a billionaire and sharing it with you as a reward for your kindness.
Reynar
Oldest Member
Best Lap
posted 09-15-2005 11:23:17 PM
quote:
Maradon! had this to say about Reading Rainbow:
I think you have a better chance of winning a million dollars by giving $1 to a pan handler and having him come back months later a billionaire and sharing it with you as a reward for your kindness.

Except there's more than just one payout with the lotto. Like I said, I've personally won $150, and it cost me $1. It's not a million dollars, but it's still nice.

And that's why a lot of people play.

"Give me control of a nation's money, and I care not who makes its laws."
-Mayer Rothschild
Maradon!
posted 09-15-2005 11:52:42 PM
quote:
Over the mountain, in between the ups and downs, I ran into Reynar who doth quote:
Except there's more than just one payout with the lotto. Like I said, I've personally won $150, and it cost me $1. It's not a million dollars, but it's still nice.

And that's why a lot of people play.


You got fairly lucky. If you played the lotto regularly, you would lose that $150 and a lot more.

It's like vegas with odds that are thousands of times worse, even for the low payouts.

Bloodsage
Heart Attack
posted 09-16-2005 12:11:27 AM
quote:
Bloodsage startled the peaceful upland Gorillas by blurting:
Where did you put your brain today. After I pointed out the difference between addiction and compulsion, you called the difference only semantic. That is where you fucked up. Had you just said, "Okay," and moved on, there'd have been no problem.

Actually, I did get Snugglits and Reynar mixed up a bit. . .but your comment about semantics was still stupid so I stand by what I said.

Edit: more better talking method now.

Bloodsage fucked around with this message on 09-16-2005 at 12:12 AM.

To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.

--Satan, quoted by John Milton

Reynar
Oldest Member
Best Lap
posted 09-16-2005 12:35:29 AM
quote:
Maradon! had this to say about Cuba:
You got fairly lucky. If you played the lotto regularly, you would lose that $150 and a lot more.

It's like vegas with odds that are thousands of times worse, even for the low payouts.


I'm well aware that I beat the odds get any money period. It still won't stop me from playing occasionally, and I will likely end up losing that extra money I won, but oh well.

"Give me control of a nation's money, and I care not who makes its laws."
-Mayer Rothschild
Tier
posted 09-16-2005 01:28:52 AM
Besides... Math and numbers are fine and all, but the chance is still there. A little hope is better than none, and I can think of worse ways to spend that looney lying around in your pocket.
Bloodsage
Heart Attack
posted 09-16-2005 01:35:32 AM
quote:
Asha'man startled the peaceful upland Gorillas by blurting:
Besides... Math and numbers are fine and all, but the chance is still there. A little hope is better than none, and I can think of worse ways to spend that looney lying around in your pocket.

Considering the fact that buying a lottery ticket is almost exactly equivalent (there's a 1/175000000 {.000000000571428 for those who prefer decimals} difference) to throwing that coin out the window, your point is rather hard to fathom.

Like Dogbert said when he was selling day-old lottery tickets for a discount, "And the best part is, your chances of winning are only 1 in 750 million less than they were yesterday!"

Bloodsage fucked around with this message on 09-16-2005 at 01:38 AM.

To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.

--Satan, quoted by John Milton

Tier
posted 09-16-2005 02:28:58 AM
Yeah, my point was more that some people act out of the heart rather than the mind.

It may not be "reasonable", but so long as it keeps them happier than rational thought, what harm is there?

Bloodsage
Heart Attack
posted 09-16-2005 09:58:12 AM
quote:
Bent over the coffee table, Asha'man squealed:
Yeah, my point was more that some people act out of the heart rather than the mind.

It may not be "reasonable", but so long as it keeps them happier than rational thought, what harm is there?


What harm is there from being irrational like that? Well, let's see. People with that kind of fiscal sense have no hope of saving for their own retirement, thus costing the rest of us huge $$ because the state ends up supporting them. They're more likely to be scammed, leading to the same result. They're probably the same kind of person who ends up with more kids than they can support, because that's definitely behavior from the "heart" and not the brain.

There's another word for that kind of behavior: stupid.

To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.

--Satan, quoted by John Milton

Snoota
Now I am become Death, shatterer of worlds
posted 09-16-2005 10:14:19 AM
.9999999 = Vin Diesel
Bloodsage
Heart Attack
posted 09-16-2005 10:15:03 AM
Bye, Snoota!

Good luck!

Don't drink the water!

To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.

--Satan, quoted by John Milton

Aury
My hair is a deadly weapon
posted 09-16-2005 10:23:54 AM
quote:
Bloodsage impressed everyone with:
There is no such thing as a gambling addict, unless you've recently caught someone freebasing a scratch-off thingy. Some obsessive-compulsive behavior is oriented towards gambling, but that != addiction.

Work at a casino for a year. You'll see addicts.

Mod
Pancake
posted 09-16-2005 10:40:34 AM
quote:
Bloodsage spewed forth this undeniable truth:
What harm is there from being irrational like that? Well, let's see. People with that kind of fiscal sense have no hope of saving for their own retirement, thus costing the rest of us huge $$ because the state ends up supporting them. They're more likely to be scammed, leading to the same result. They're probably the same kind of person who ends up with more kids than they can support, because that's definitely behavior from the "heart" and not the brain.

There's another word for that kind of behavior: stupid.



That's somewhat of a leap there. If you play the lottery as an investment, this may be correct, but if you pay a dollar for the two minute thrill of looking at the lottery numbers and hoping you win I don't see it as any different than spending it on any other form of entertainment. I wouldn't agree that anyone who spends 4$ per month on lottery tickets or drops 200$ on blackjack during his annual trip to Vegas automatically has a deficiency in business sense.

Life... is like a box of chocolates. A cheap, thoughtless, perfunctory gift that nobody ever asks for. Unreturnable, because all you get back is another box of chocolates. You're stuck with this undefinable whipped-mint crap that you mindlessly wolf down when there's nothing else left to eat. Sure, once in a while, there's a peanut butter cup, or an English toffee. But they're gone too fast, the taste is fleeting. So you end up with nothing but broken bits, filled with hardened jelly and teeth-crunching nuts, and if you're desperate enough to eat those, all you've got left is a... is an empty box... filled with useless, brown paper wrappers.
Bloodsage
Heart Attack
posted 09-16-2005 07:05:24 PM
quote:
Channeling the spirit of Sherlock Holmes, Mod absently fondled Watson and proclaimed:
That's somewhat of a leap there. If you play the lottery as an investment, this may be correct, but if you pay a dollar for the two minute thrill of looking at the lottery numbers and hoping you win I don't see it as any different than spending it on any other form of entertainment. I wouldn't agree that anyone who spends 4$ per month on lottery tickets or drops 200$ on blackjack during his annual trip to Vegas automatically has a deficiency in business sense.

You need to read the thread, dude. I haven't said that anyone who buys tickets is an idiot--I said that it's the equivalent of throwing the money away, and that anyone who plays with the hope or expectation of winning is an idiot. If it gives you a thrill, go for it; just don't talk to me about how you're planning to win.

Further, your blackjack analogy is flawed, because it's actually possible for one to succeed at that game over the long term, even at multiple-deck tables, although craps actually has better odds from what I understand (though it's more complicated. So, neener.

To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.

--Satan, quoted by John Milton

Bloodsage
Heart Attack
posted 09-16-2005 07:06:14 PM
quote:
Aury startled the peaceful upland Gorillas by blurting:
Work at a casino for a year. You'll see addicts.

No I won't. I'll see people with obsessive-compulsive disorders. Don't you pay attention?

To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.

--Satan, quoted by John Milton

Pvednes
Lynched
posted 09-17-2005 01:03:31 AM
quote:
Bloodsage had this to say about Pirotess:
No I won't. I'll see people with obsessive-compulsive disorders. Don't you pay attention?

Actually, obsessive compulsive disorders are a different beast from pathological gambling. In the DSM-IV, you'll find pathological gambling amongst the clinical disorders, but obsessive compulsive personality disorder as a cluster III personality disorder.

Also, as you'll see by the criteria for each, they're very different indeed.

Palador ChibiDragon
Dismembered
posted 09-17-2005 01:11:49 AM
quote:
So quoth Bloodsage:
No I won't. I'll see people with obsessive-compulsive disorders. Don't you pay attention?

Actually, I've been wondering: If you get a "rush" from gambling, can't you get addicted to the rush? There is a chemical component to that, after all.

It might not be much of an addiction when compared to hard drugs, but wouldn't it still be there?

I believe in the existance of magic, not because I have seen proof of its existance, but because I refuse to live in a world where it does not exist.
Maradon!
posted 09-17-2005 01:15:07 AM
quote:
Peanut butter ass Shaq Palador ChibiDragon booooze lime pole over bench lick:
Actually, I've been wondering: If you get a "rush" from gambling, can't you get addicted to the rush? There is a chemical component to that, after all.

It might not be much of an addiction when compared to hard drugs, but wouldn't it still be there?


The "rush" that comes from gambling may have a chemical component, but that chemical component is not exclusive to gambling. You, as the compulsive gambler, choose to ignore other "rushes" that could just as easily substitute.

Palador ChibiDragon
Dismembered
posted 09-17-2005 01:24:31 AM
quote:
Maradon! had this to say about John Romero:
The "rush" that comes from gambling may have a chemical component, but that chemical component is not exclusive to gambling. You, as the compulsive gambler, choose to ignore other "rushes" that could just as easily substitute.

Good point.

I believe in the existance of magic, not because I have seen proof of its existance, but because I refuse to live in a world where it does not exist.
Bloodsage
Heart Attack
posted 09-17-2005 12:32:25 PM
quote:
Quoth Pvednes:
Actually, obsessive compulsive disorders are a different beast from pathological gambling. In the DSM-IV, you'll find pathological gambling amongst the clinical disorders, but obsessive compulsive personality disorder as a cluster III personality disorder.

Also, as you'll see by the criteria for each, they're very different indeed.


I'll buy that--but it validates rather than invalidates my original point: it's a mental problem with the gambler, not an addiction caused by the game.

To reign is worth ambition, though in Hell:
Better to reign in Hell than serve in Heaven.

--Satan, quoted by John Milton

Kildace
French
posted 09-17-2005 12:57:02 PM
0.9999 (repeating) = 1.
Maradon!
posted 09-17-2005 12:59:46 PM
quote:
Peanut butter ass Shaq Kildace booooze lime pole over bench lick:
0.9999 (repeating) = 1.

How about 0.89999 (repeating)?

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