Summary for those not up to speed:
-Ahmedinijad wins over rival Mousavi (reformist, pro-women's rights, less confrontational candidate) in very suspicious circumstances. Polls show that he won resoundingly even in Mousavi's own ethnic province, which has been unheard of.
-Ahmedinijad's victory proclamation is short-lived as thousands take to the street in protest with Mousavi claiming that he will fight the decision.
-The government puts a ban on protesting. It is temporarily called off for fears that the police will use live ammunition on protesters.
-The protest ban is defied, with an even greater turnout than expected. Led by Mousavi, the protesters number approximately one million marching through theran. The riot police and army declare themselves neutral, leaving only Ahmedinijad's personal militia, the Basij.
-Violence erupts as the Basij open fire, killing nine Iranians. In retaliation, the protesters attack and destroy the Basij headquarters.
-Twitter, being used as the chief form of communication for the protesters, listens to the Iranian plea to put off maintenance to avoid a total information blackout from the region (local and foreign media having been silenced).
-The Ayatollah has agreed to investigate the election, but there is a problem. Another Ayatollah has begun making rumblings to replace this guy, claiming that he was in on the corruption.
-A nationwide strike is planned for tomorrow.
So far, I think this is a good thing. I'm under no impressions that Mousavi is going to come to power and everything will be roses, but it is important to see that the Iranians are conducting themselves mostly with restraint for the riot (pictures of protesters picking up wounded riot police and carrying them to safety from the mob are prominent) and it is important to see them so passionate about democracy.
In addition, I think Obama's decision to stay out of it and make no comment other than "We're troubled by the violence, but we respect your sovereignty and we'll dialogue with whoever gets elected" is a good one. Any support for Mousavi would be seen as international meddling and strengthen Ahmedinijad's position.
Tell me your thoughts.
"important: The Iranian government is looking for dissident twitterers, so if you have an account, change your location and timezone to theran!
This seems to be helping quite a few people, so I'll go ahead and repost it in every threads with some adjustments. Sorry, this has reached the level of TL;DR but I really am trying to cram the most relevant information and speculation only. Everything is updated as events unfold, especially the timeline and what will happen in the future.
Suppression of Dissent - The Players
Currently, there are either two or three groups who are suppressing the students on the ground that you'll read about throughout this thread:
1. The Basij
2. Ansar Hizbullah (which I will refer to as Ansar)
3. Lebanese Hizbullah (Unconfirmed but highly probable. Der Spiegel, based on a Voice of America report, says that 5,000 Hizbullah fighters are currently in Iran masquerading as riot police, confirming the independent reports. Many different independent reports and video point that way. Even in the last hours other independent twitter feeds have declared witnessing thugs beating on people while shouting in Arabic; I will refer to them as Hizbullah)
- The Basij are your regular paramilitary organization. They are the armed hand of the clerics. The Basij are a legal group, officially a student union, and are legally under direct orders of the Revolutionary Guard. Their main raison d'être is to quell dissent. They are the ones who go and crack skulls, force people to participate in pro-regime demonstrations, and generally try to stop any demonstrations from even starting. They are located throughout the country, in every mosque, every university, every social club you can think of. They function in a way very similar to the brownshirts.
They were the ones who first started the crackdown after the election, but it wasn't enough. While they are violent and repressive, they are still Persian and attacking fellow citizens. A beating is one thing, mass killings another.
- Another group was working with them, whose members are even more extreme, is Ansar. There is a lot of cross-membership between the Basij and Ansar, though not all are members of the other group and vice-versa. The vast majority of Ansar are Persians (either Basij or ex-military), though a lot of Arab recruits come from Lebanon and train with them under supervision of the Revolutionary Guard. They are not functioning under a legal umbrella, they are considered a vigilante group, but they pledge loyalty directly to the Supreme Leader and most people believe that they are under his control. They are currently helping the Basij to control the riots, but due to the fact that they are Persians and in lower numbers than the Basij, they are not that active.
- The Lebanese Hizbullah is a direct offshoot (and under direct control) of the Iranian Hizbullah (itself under direct control of the Supreme Leader) and cooperates closely with Ansar though Ansar occupies itself only with Iran's domestic policies, while Hizbullah occupies itself only with Iran's foreign policy unless there is a crisis like right now. However, Hizbullah has been called to stop violent riots in Iran in the past.
(the following paragraph includes some speculation based on reports from ground zero) Hizbullah flew in a lot of their members in Iran, most likely a good deal even before the elections in case there were trouble. They are the ones who speak Arabs and are unleashing the biggest level of violence on the Persians so far. Another wave arrived recently and there is chatter that yet another wave of Hizbullah reinforcements are coming in from Lebanon as we speak. According to Iranians on the ground, they are the ones riding motorcycles, beating men women and children indiscriminately and firing live ammunitions at students.
What will happen
Unless the army decides to intervene in the favor of the Council and to stop the early beginnings of the new Revolution, Ansar & Hizbullah members will be the ones doing the brunt of the killing and repression with Basij as a support while also protecting government buildings and try to do crowd control. The police seems to have for the most part disbanded in centers like theran according to all reports, including international media. If the police decides to come back, they will focus less on protection and crowd control, so the Basij will start to crack more skulls).
Currently, this is what is happening.
Timeline
note: I built this through both articles and twitter feeds, so I do not claim that this is a 100% factually correct representation of reality, but this is the general narrative.
- When the first spontaneous riots erupted, the first wave the Iranian Riot Police was called in, and short after the Basij also took the scene. The RP concentrated mostly around public buildings and streets while the Basij took position around student groups, especiallly universities.
- As things got more out of hand, more and more Basij troops were called in, as the police started dispersing. The riot police are less inclined (or, rather I should say the Basij are more inclined) to use violence so they retreated and leaving the place to the Basij.
- With the second wave of Basij also came Ansar Hizbullah members. This is the point where firearms started being used. There are reports of a few murders but it was mostly fired in the air or on walls in order to scare away protesters in University dorms.
- It's around the time of the second wave that the first reports and videos of an important number of non-Persian thugs shouting in Arabic and violently beating people with chains, clubs and electric batons (similar to cattle prods). The end of the second wave came right before the beginning of the current manifestation. Things were getting quieter with only sporadic reports of dissenters being assaulted. Important to note: at this time. the Supreme Leader has authorized these militias to use live ammunition against the crowd if things get out of hand (source: BBC)
- This brings us to the third wave, which just began around 12:30PM for those of us on the East Coast. According to all reports, plainclothes militia have opened fire on civilians protesting peacefully. Chaos erupted in the streets, with reports of fighting all over theran and spreading over Iran. Pictures of people shot, some to death, surfaced and were published in the mainstream media. Things very are ugly and this is spreading in other cities as well. Violent and murderous repression has started. At least a twenty people have been killed so far. Things will spiral down fast, and very soon.
There is a major crackdown on students, especially those with connections to the outside world going on right now. Some people report that the students are fighting back in some areas. Telephones are being bugged and everyone twittering and sending videos outside of Iran are being rounded up. ISPs were shut down, government hackers are threatening people who twitter, and some of them have vanished in the last 24 hours.
Later, the people started to fight back. First, they took over and burned down a Basij base, killing its commander. Later, a Basij shot a young man in the face in front of their HQ, at which point a policeman went to confront them. The Basij beat the policeman, at which point students stormed the compound, throwing molotov cocktails, burning it to the ground. This is very big.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow, supporters of Moussavi have a manifestation planned for 5pm, theran time. Roughly the same number or more is expected to attend. Plenty of twitter chat about dressing in black.
The pro-Ahmadinejad crowd however are planning a counter-demonstration at the very same place the supporters are supposed to gather at 3pm. Most agree that basically they are simply going to gather for a confrontation. Basij from all over the country are moving to theran and supporters are being bused from all over the country.
A major showdown is expected to unfold
The Supreme Leader has also called for a 10-day inquiry into the claims of fraud, but it has been widely dismissed as cosmetic. The Revolution lives on."
-A major schism has occurred within the military structure, causing generals to be arrested in favor of the protesters that the rest of the military sides with (unconfirmed)
-Several Revolutionary Guards have attempted to join the protest (unconfirmed)
-Ahmedinijad has gone to a summit in Russia, apparently totally oblivious/in denial to the point that he is reaching Information Minister levels of hilarity (confirmed)
-The Guardian Council, Iran's voting overseers, have agreed to a recount, but refuse to nullify the previous vote (confirmed)
quote:
There are reports that protesters are gathering at Valisar Square despite warnings about the presence of armed police.Robert Tait writes: The following chilling message on Twitter may explain why Mousavi has decided to call off today's demo in central theran: "They are evacuating all buildings around Valiasr Sq & filling it with Basij (militia volunteers), please be careful!," it reads.
A member of Mousavi's election headquarters is quoted in Facebook as saying the government and police are trying to set a "death-trap" at the protest.
All journalists have been banned from recording or reporting today.
These protests are proving differently. Unless Ahmadinejad is the one person closest to the power holder that the people have a say in voting for.
quote:
Everyone wondered WTF when Vernaltemptress wrote:
These protests are proving differently. Unless Ahmadinejad is the one person closest to the power holder that the people have a say in voting for.
From what I've been reading during this shitstorm this seems to be the most likely explanation. I don't think the people can really do anything about the Clerical Counsel or Supreme Leader, so attention is focused on the President.
Although with the reports that one of Khameni's possible successors is calling for his resignation, maybe the people are showing that they have more say than we think.
quote:
Dr. Gee had this to say about Jimmy Carter:
Although with the reports that one of Khameni's possible successors is calling for his resignation, maybe the people are showing that they have more say than we think.
This looks more like opportunistic successors than the influence of the people to me.
It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the beans of Java the thoughts aquire speed, the teeth acquire stains, the stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion.
The protesters defied the "death trap" warning again and have flooded into northern theran, proving once again that they are braver than Blindy.
Dinnerjacket is now in Russia, giving a speech on "the age of empires" and making no move to mention the protests. At this point, there's a wonder as to whether he's deeply in denial or just sheltered from the information by his handlers (unlikely, since it seems he would definitely be informed by people in Russia).
quote:
Mr. Parcelan said:
Dinnerjacket
Good to know I'm not the only one who hears this every time his name comes up.
quote:
Vernaltemptress had this to say about Reading Rainbow:
This is all very interesting. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita has studied Iran and Ahmadinejad and claims the Iranian President does not have as much power in Iran as we believe.These protests are proving differently. Unless Ahmadinejad is the one person closest to the power holder that the people have a say in voting for.
I recommend this nice guide from the BBC. The president is the highest post people can vote for but, quite frankly, the big power holder in Iran is the supreme leader. What the supreme leader says is absolute basically. Oddly, this makes this whole event very interesting; the supreme leader rescinded his statements about Ahmadinejad winning, The clerics have to be worrying if they were that threatened by the public pressure.
For all those following this who can't keep up with Fark, I highly recommend The Huffington Post. The live blog is doing a great job of following twitter and other sources. Talonus fucked around with this message on 06-16-2009 at 05:40 PM.
quote:
Damnati wrote this then went back to looking for porn:
This looks more like opportunistic successors than the influence of the people to me.
Ya see, part of why I don't really think this is a pure opportunistic power grab on his part is that the beliefs he's been espousing for years are what a lot of people are currently in the streets trying to get.
quote:
From Fark:
Ayatollah Montazeri is a pro-Democracy, pro-Human Rights Ayatollah who was at one point on the short list of possible successors of Khomeini, but became marginalized as he adopted what was seen as a too pro-Western, pro-Democracy stance.Since the beginning of the Revolution, he has been one of the fiercest critics of the Regime, and one of the biggest proponents of women and civil rights for ALL Iranians, including much-maligned minorities like the Baha'is. In fact he goes further than the protections afforded to them under Sharia.
He is also a big critic of Ahmadinejad and has been seen for years as the best hope for Iran if he ever was to come to power, something that was unthinkable a mere week ago.
He has also come out with a statement saying that policemen who beat on protesters and follow orders will not be forgiven under Islam, and that even if the government cuts the lines of communication with the outside world, that it was too late and the truth was getting out
I can see this coming back to haunt us.
It's not the USA's responsibility to step in and do anything. I think waiting it out is appropriate.
quote:
Check out the big brain on Mr. Parcelan!
Obama has officially taken the stance of "no meddling" as McCain howls at him for not supporting the protesters.I can see this coming back to haunt us.
There is a complete damned if you do, damned if you don't situtation domestically. Its also completely the right move to make. If america intervenes it will invalidate any reform that comes out of this. An Iran that changes itself, then seeks an alliance with the west is the best chance to settle the mideast.
Having such a "bring the troops home" stance during the campaign, then moving right into the country between Afghanistan and Iraq would be a major pr fail for Obama. It will also allow the GOP to try and call him a coward, and ill fit to lead, wrong as they may be.
quote:
Verily, the chocolate bunny rabbits doth run and play while Blindy. gently hums:
Iran is kinda like america.
You = dumbass.
--Satan, quoted by John Milton
quote:
Check out the big brain on Liam!
American support will give Ahmedinejad and his followers someone to blame the violence on. They've already tried this propaganda tactic with their people, stating that it's Americans who are supporting the protesters and the violence, but they're not buying it.It's not the USA's responsibility to step in and do anything. I think waiting it out is appropriate.
Right. All the same, I suspect it wouldn't be too far a stretch of the imagination to see Mousavi come to power and adopt an anti-American policy based on a lack of support during the protests.
That's not likely to happen, though, considering that would be pretty close to his rival.
quote:
Liam stopped staring at Deedlit long enough to write:
Mousavi's voters aren't exactly anti-Western either.
I think the poll I read suggested they were no fans of the American government, but largely sympathetic to the American people.
Or peoples, if you will.
I haven't yet seen anything on Mousavi's rhetoric toward Israel.
quote:
Check out the big brain on Dr. Gee!
[QBYa see, part of why I don't really think this is a pure opportunistic power grab on his part is that the beliefs he's been espousing for years are what a lot of people are currently in the streets trying to get.][/QB]
That does make a lot more sense. Thanks for that.
It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the beans of Java the thoughts aquire speed, the teeth acquire stains, the stains become a warning. It is by caffeine alone I set my mind in motion.
quote:
Mr. Parcelan has funnier quote texts than me:
I think the poll I read suggested they were no fans of the American government, but largely sympathetic to the American people.Or peoples, if you will.
I haven't yet seen anything on Mousavi's rhetoric toward Israel.
None of the candidates recognize Israel as a state.
Do you, Liam?
Anyway, here are some of the more cartoonishly villainous moments of the protests so far (unconfirmed, but reported on Twitter)
-Ambulances taking people to prison infirmaries to be detained
-Basij donning uniforms and masquerading as police
-Basij looting dormitories
quote:
The man who leaked the real election results from the Interior Ministry - the ones showing Ahmadinejad coming third - was killed in a suspicious car accident, according to unconfirmed reports, writes Saeed Kamali Dehghan in theran.Mohammad Asgari, who was responsible for the security of the IT network in Iran's interior ministry, was killed yesterday in theran.
Asgari had reportedly leaked results that showed the elections were rigged by government use of new software to alter the votes from the provinces.
Asgari was said to have leaked information that showed Mousavi had won almost 19 million votes, and should therefore be president.
We will try to get more details later.
And it's not like it matters. The Ayatollah still makes all the decisions in Iran. And he's more like Ahmedinijad than Mousavi. With Mousavi Iran will have a sympathetic face to show the world, and the Ayatollah may even grant some major changes like giving women more rights and other freedoms as the carrot on the stick to the rest of the world showing that Iran has changed with it's new moderate leader who wants to finally leave the 17th century, all the while stalling time to work on it's nuclear weapon research just in time for Ahmedinijad Jr. to win the next election.
Ballsy move, since he basically called out Khameini.
quote:
Mr. Parcelan had this to say about Knight Rider:
Obama has officially taken the stance of "no meddling" as McCain howls at him for not supporting the protesters.I can see this coming back to haunt us.
It was a huge relief to see Obama essentially took no side, referring to it as an internal matter. We're fortunate he understands the rhetoric. If the U.S. were to take a "side" we would be seen as openly meddling (well we will be accused of it anyway) and could likely hurt that side. (the protesters since we can't support Ahmadinejad).
quote:
Mr. Parcelan stopped beating up furries long enough to write:
Right. All the same, I suspect it wouldn't be too far a stretch of the imagination to see Mousavi come to power and adopt an anti-American policy based on a lack of support during the protests.That's not likely to happen, though, considering that would be pretty close to his rival.
The President of Iran doesn't have a ton of influence in their foreign policy. We may see an easing of tension but in the end Iran still has the same geopolitical goals regardless of the face of their government. Regardless, these protests have nothing to do with how Iran feels towards the U.S. or the West, and any changes will be byproducts rather than intended consequence.
quote:
Verily, Bricktop doth proclaim:
Mousavi winning would be the worst outcome, in the long run. It's easy to drum up international support to shut down Iran's nuclear ambitions with chest thumping, Let's Blow Up Isreal shit talking Ahmedinijad as the scapegoat, as opposed to the more moderate and ready to have Iran join the civilized world Mousavi. And Mousavi already said during the campaign that he has no intentions of giving up Iran's nuclear research.And it's not like it matters. The Ayatollah still makes all the decisions in Iran. And he's more like Ahmedinijad than Mousavi. With Mousavi Iran will have a sympathetic face to show the world, and the Ayatollah may even grant some major changes like giving women more rights and other freedoms as the carrot on the stick to the rest of the world showing that Iran has changed with it's new moderate leader who wants to finally leave the 17th century, all the while stalling time to work on it's nuclear weapon research just in time for Ahmedinijad Jr. to win the next election.
To be honest I'm not terribly worried about a democratic Iran having nuclear weapons. The technology isn't really that advanced, and the world's attempts at non-proliferation for states is at best a losing battle over the next century with how trivial it already is to enrich uranium (and plutonium) as well assemble the actual weapons. Regardless of what happens Iran will continue power and (allegedly) weapons research.
--
It's interesting because it is highly unlikely that the outcome would ever be tangible change; the Assembly of Experts will not remove Khameinei. The best case scenario is that he will have moderately decreased influence. The entire point of the supreme leader is that he is above politics and he will guard the best interests of the Islamic Republic with regard for the welfare of its people and of course Islam. If he is confirmed to be complicit (which he almost certainly is) in the rigging of an election it hurts the entire premise of the office.
Everyone makes the mistake of viewing Iran's government through the lens of our consolidated governments. The reality is that it is factionalized with many different groups vying for control. Khameinei isn't really a strong leader but he is clever and has managed to gain the support of other powerful people. If it looks like his "religious" credentials are suspect he will quickly lose influence. Also remember that the military/IRGC are highly religious and will heed the words of other Ayatollahs. Many of them were around for the 1979 revolution and it's unlikely they will be comfortable with using force to stop peaceful protesters.
I guess the general message is that Iran is a very unique country and it's very difficult to predict what is going to happen. I hope that there will not be huge bloodshed (and the evidence leans towards less violence) but we can't know how the various powers are going to act.
quote:
How.... Mr. Parcelan.... uughhhhhh:
Right. All the same, I suspect it wouldn't be too far a stretch of the imagination to see Mousavi come to power and adopt an anti-American policy based on a lack of support during the protests.That's not likely to happen, though, considering that would be pretty close to his rival.
Hmm I would see it as him being happy if the US didn't step in now, but maybe stepped in after with some aid. Honesty I think if we were over there it would be pouring gas on a fire. Outside of any Anti-American feelings, I could see other terrorist organization coming out of the wood work to fuck up shit because of the US presence
quote:
Over the mountain, in between the ups and downs, I ran into Blindy. who doth quote:
Iran is kinda like america. You've got a lot of people who live in cities and vote progressive, but even more people who live out in the sticks and vote hard-line conservative.
On the other hand, Iran is much the opposite of America, with the rural farmers voting unlimited power into the hands of an increasingly paternalistic government while the urbanites have an issue with the absolute theocracy. I suppose you wouldn't see it that way, but then I suppose the farmers don't either.
There's a guy named Lionel on Air America who is like the left-wing answer to Sean Hannity. I like his show because he at least attempts to be logical in his partisanship, and because he has really great guests on that are pertinent to international politics. One of these was an Iranian college student that he had on about a year ago, who started life in the US but went back to his homeland for several years.
The kid described a vibrantly liberal and pro-western youth scene expressing itself in every way that wouldn't attract the steel batons of the morality police. He talked about a trend among hijab-clad Iranian women to wear bandages on their noses. He at first assumed that nose jobs were just popular because they were one of the few exposed body parts, but he later learned that these girls weren't having surgery at all, they were just wearing the bandages because it was perceived as western and thereby fashionable.
Of all the countries in the world where the people are absolutely at odds with the government, I would have counted Iran as second only to China. That these riots would break out there isn't surprising to me.
quote:
x--NoxhilO-('-'Q) :
To be honest I'm not terribly worried about a democratic Iran having nuclear weapons.
Unfortunately, Iran is not a democracy, they are a theocratic oligarchy. The keys to those nuclear weapons would not be in the hands of any publicly accountable official, but in the hands of a handful of absolute rulers who have not only declared their willingness to sacrifice the Iranian people in the name of advancing Islam by destroying jews, but may do so with the backing of a large portion of their military infrastructure, and so with relative impunity.
Nuclear weapons in the hands of the Iranian government would be as dangerous to the Iranian people as they would be to everyone else in the region. Claiming that it's not a big deal just because nukes aren't that hard to make is like claiming that we shouldn't try to prevent rapists just because it's a trivial thing to commit rape but a difficult thing to prevent one.
Iran is not a sovereign nation, they are a terrified people sat astride by a predominantly insane and genocidal theocracy. The consequences are just too serious not to do everything we possibly can to keep them from even being in the position to threaten their own people and those of the region.
That said, I do agree with Obama's hands-off policy with regard to the riots. It's extremely unlikely that our support would help anything at all, and it would indeed "cheapen" the message of the Moussavi supporters. It's unlikely that the government will try anything nuclear while the unrest is going on, and after it has settled we can deal with any threat that remains as is necessary, hopefully after Obama is out of office.
Moussavi no longer has anything to do with these riots. He was a figurehead before, and a figurehead he remains. The message that has been poured into him is one of opposition to the theocracy and support for western, democratic society. Whether Moussavi himself agrees with that or not is almost irrelevant. Maradon! fucked around with this message on 06-20-2009 at 02:26 PM.
-It's on.
-The Basij are shooting people up.
-Mousavi is "ready for martyrdom."
"Don't want to sound like a fanboy, but I am with you. I'll buy it for sure, it's just a matter of for how long I will be playing it..."
- Silvast, Battle.net forums
