This really only tiptoes around the central issue: oil is running out, and it's running out in a hurry. But honestly, no one's going to care about that until it actually starts affecting them. I think, though, that it will affect our lifestyle sooner, rather than later. I suspected that gas would go up by a dollar per gallon per year from 2006 as a worst case scenario, but maybe that'll wind up being accurate.
It ain't gonna be a fun couple of decades, folks.
Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite. - John Kenneth Galbraith
--Satan, quoted by John Milton
What about alaska's costal plain? There's enough oil there to last us 50+ years at our current rate of consumption. And there's more shale oil in colorado than in the entire middle east. Neither of these have even been touched.
And that's just our country.
Moreover, the behavior is matching what the Hubbert Curve predicts for world oil supply: as discoveries of new resources peak, so too will production peak some years later. Discoveries of new reserves are in decline, so too can we expect production to peak and begin its inevitable decline. The main problem is we won't know it's happened until we're past it. Since, however, it's been two years and despite record demand, production hasn't gone up, it becomes more and more likely every day that we're post-Peak. It is not likely that this problem is transient and will be corrected by a surge in production, because there are not enough new reserves coming online to replace the old, much less surpass them.
Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite. - John Kenneth Galbraith
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Aw, geez, I have Maradon! all over myself!
I still don't buy that we're anywhere near peak oil.What about alaska's costal plain? There's enough oil there to last us 50+ years at our current rate of consumption. And there's more shale oil in colorado than in the entire middle east. Neither of these have even been touched.
And that's just our country.
Actually, there aren't the kinds of reserves in Alaska that you might think. The P95 reserve estimate for ANWR, as an example, is 4.3 billion barrels. Taking that as a worst cost scenario, that can supply our oil needs for about a year and a half--assuming we could even extract it that fast.
The oil shale in Colorado is, however, a much larger reserve. The BLM states that there are about 800 billion barrels recoverable across the U.S., which would last us more than a century at current consumption. The problem with oil shale is that there's no energy-efficient way to extract it--in other words, we would put more energy into extracting, processing, and shipping it than would be gained through its use. As I understand it, what's being bandied about now is that dedicated nuclear reactors should be built to power oil shale extraction, as our grid could never handle the energy requirements needed for it.
Additionally, Canadian oil sands are about half as expensive as oil shale, so under NAFTA, we have full access to those. That would probably also account for why we're not going balls out for oil shale.
The problem is that these things require massive investment in infrastructure, and such things take time. In the mean time, conventional production is dropping, demand is skyrocketing, and we're left paying the tab.
Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite. - John Kenneth Galbraith
Our biggest holding point in the US atm is the lack of refining capacity, which has been stagnant since the 1970/80's. This is because noone wants a refinery in their back yard and or political unwillingness to move on such items. We just need to start working on tech to last us till we can build/invent more viable energy production facilities. The worst thing for us now is the use of food supply for bio-fuel, we'll be stretching out our crops to thin if we continue, it may be good in the short run, but we'll be finding that it'll cost about the same as fuel does now.
We are going to be sucking the balls of Saudi Arabia and the rest of the middle east for oil just as much as the rest of the world will have to until they run out. We'll also be forced to pay up to the Oil companies which are trying to keep a profit margin ontop of the expensive oil.
Fortune Story on Oil Shale and Royal Dutch Shell
We need to get a better energy policy now, and there shouldn't be so much bickering about not wanting to have to do something just because it may lose you some votes.
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Karnaj thought this was the Ricky Martin Fan Club Forum and wrote:
Even if the news isn't good.This really only tiptoes around the central issue: oil is running out, and it's running out in a hurry. But honestly, no one's going to care about that until it actually starts affecting them. I think, though, that it will affect our lifestyle sooner, rather than later. I suspected that gas would go up by a dollar per gallon per year from 2006 as a worst case scenario, but maybe that'll wind up being accurate.
It ain't gonna be a fun couple of decades, folks.
You belong back in the early 80's.
Seriously, you've been screaming oil doomsday forever on this forum -- and I'm not sure why.
He's also a lot funnier than Jon Stewart.
Beck also had the highest ratings of any cable news show this week so apparently people are listening.
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And now, we sprinkle Reynar liberally with Old Spice!
You belong back in the early 80's.Seriously, you've been screaming oil doomsday forever on this forum -- and I'm not sure why.
Wow, that was a really constructive post, and it raised an excellent argument that I have to carefully analyze before I reply. Oh wait, it did none of that. My mistake.
I'll make this painfully clear: if you take issue with what I'm saying, then demonstrate what's wrong with it. That you've apparently elected to remain ignorant of the body of information and evidence supporting my claims is no concern of mine. Nothing I've said is especially alarmist or radical. Rather, it is based upon information made available by experts in relevant industries at the request of our government, as well as relevant news reports in the last year and a half.
Here's a report prepared by the U.S. GAO which summarizes things fairly well.
I suggest you read them and, if you find serious fault with them, bring such faults to my attention.
Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite. - John Kenneth Galbraith
Our way of life will continue, we just may be filling up our cars with something else aside from gasoline.
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Karnaj said this about your mom:
Wow, that was a really constructive post, and it raised an excellent argument that I have to carefully analyze before I reply. Oh wait, it did none of that. My mistake.I'll make this painfully clear: if you take issue with what I'm saying, then demonstrate what's wrong with it. That you've apparently elected to remain ignorant of the body of information and evidence supporting my claims is no concern of mine. Nothing I've said is especially alarmist or radical. Rather, it is based upon information made available by experts in relevant industries at the request of our government, as well as relevant news reports in the last year and a half.
Here's a report prepared by the U.S. GAO which summarizes things fairly well.
I suggest you read them and, if you find serious fault with them, bring such faults to my attention.
Oh man you sure showed me, dang. :[
I don't really take issue with it, but it is the same tired crap over & over again. And before you reference your logical fallacies 101 cheat sheet next: I'm was trying to make any argument with that post either, since it seems you couldn't already tell.
Not my fault you take this crap so seriously.
Reynar fucked around with this message on 11-08-2007 at 10:49 PM.
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Over the mountain, in between the ups and downs, I ran into Reynar who doth quote:
I'm sure there's merit to all of this. But I'm really not worried, because transportion is a multi billion dollar industry. As soon as our current method becomes no longer profitable or viable, those big companies will move to (or invent) the next big thing.Our way of life will continue, we just may be filling up our cars with something else aside from gasoline.
The error in most people's judgment on this issue is that they vastly underestimate the adaptability of industry. It's a direct reflection of need, it doesn't always move slow.
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Reynar put down Tada! magazine long enough to type:
I'm sure there's merit to all of this. But I'm really not worried, because transportion is a multi billion dollar industry. As soon as our current method becomes no longer profitable or viable, those big companies will move to (or invent) the next big thing.Our way of life will continue, we just may be filling up our cars with something else aside from gasoline.
And you base this on...? No, seriously, what do you think we're going to switch to after oil, and what specifically leads you to think that this switch is going to be quick, easy, and unproblematic?
Under capitalism, man exploits man. Under communism, it's just the opposite. - John Kenneth Galbraith
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How.... Karnaj.... uughhhhhh:
And you base this on...? No, seriously, what do you think we're going to switch to after oil, and what specifically leads you to think that this switch is going to be quick, easy, and unproblematic?
It's in Exxon, BP, et al best intrest to make the transition smooth. If the transition is smooth they keep making money. If it isn't, they don't. At least not as much as they are making now. Course if the government takes all that money that they would be spending on figuring out their exit strategy for oil it might cause a problem.
