I can see this turning really, really bad.
quote:
A senior Indian official accused Britain, America and other western countries of "adding their weight to Pakistan's nuclear blackmail" by telling their citizens to leave."This is jumping the gun," he said. "Our intention is not to have an all-out war. It would be a limited action."
Most senior Indian officers expect that the conflict would last about a week before pressure from America and other powers forced a ceasefire.
One officer said he believed there was only the "slimmest chance" of nuclear weapons being used. "We will call Pakistan's nuclear bluff," he said. It [the nuclear factor] cannot deter us any more."
if homeboy from india is right, and there's no nukes going off, that's cool. On the other hand there's still a whole lotta people with guns and a bullet will get you just as dead as a mushroom cloud.
"No do not leave our tourism and business industries, it's just a little escalation!"
sigpic courtesy of This Guy, original modified by me
Hopefully this will not escalate too far.
In the beginning the Universe was created.Douglas Adams, 1952-2001
sigpic courtesy of This Guy, original modified by me
quote:
As Jack Straw, the Foreign Secretary, strengthened his warning to Britons to leave the region, military planners in Delhi expressed confidence that a war would not boil over into a nuclear exchange.A senior Indian official accused Britain, America and other western countries of "adding their weight to Pakistan's nuclear blackmail" by telling their citizens to leave.
They can't be sure of this, when those in command gain power, they tend to use it.
Or if they do just use threats it'll be kinda like a new Cold War. A big dick-waving contest, only on a much larger and political level. [ 06-12-2002: Message edited by: Ryuujin the Leezard ]
Pakistan is screwed and can't back down because the large number of radical Muslims in their population raises the very real possibility of civil war if they don't back the Kashmiri rebels.
India is screwed and can't back down because if they agree to a referendum on Kashmir, they have several other large provinces that might take the hint and try to claim independence, dorking their economy even further.
You can be assured neither side wants a nuclear war, and it's probably rather unlikely the situation will go that direction, though a conventional clash seems likely. The world pressure on them is a good thing, further reducing the possibility anyone will toss nukes over Kashmir.
The real danger is escalation once conventional fighting starts, and the perceived stakes on either side.
--Satan, quoted by John Milton
Neither Pakistan or India has the centralized failsafe system that both the US and Russia had at the height of the cold war. A rogue General on either side has much more power than a rogue US or Soviet ever would have.
Also, there is no Hotline between Islamibad and Delhi like there was between D.C. and Moscow. Meaning if any such rogue general were to fire off weapons, neither government would be able to call the other to let them know it was not an intentional attack. By the same token they wouldn't be able to call and say 'Hey we're having a problem and something might go very wrong with one of our nukes.'
quote:
Bloodsage attempted to be funny by writing:
One has to consider this situation from each side.Pakistan is screwed and can't back down because the large number of radical Muslims in their population raises the very real possibility of civil war if they don't back the Kashmiri rebels.
India is screwed and can't back down because if they agree to a referendum on Kashmir, they have several other large provinces that might take the hint and try to claim independence, dorking their economy even further.
You can be assured neither side wants a nuclear war, and it's probably rather unlikely the situation will go that direction, though a conventional clash seems likely. The world pressure on them is a good thing, further reducing the possibility anyone will toss nukes over Kashmir.
The real danger is escalation once conventional fighting starts, and the perceived stakes on either side.
